Prediction markets were initially built to forecast elections and economic moves but they’re now being used to bet on war, political upheaval and global instability. As money flows into these high-stakes wagers, the line between informed forecasting and profiting off real-world consequences has merged into one and is now under investigation.
Guest:
- Ben Schiffrin, director of securities policy, Better Markets
- Kevin Williams, assistant professor, economics, Occidental College
As the conflict unfolds, users have put large sums into contracts tied to potential strikes, regime changes, and if the Strait Of Hormuz will fully re-open. But before we look at this weird trend, what exactly is a prediction market, and how does it work?
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